Asimov introduced the concept of "psychohistory" in his Foundations series [1]. Psychohistory "combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people" [1]
Almost a decade ago I heard about a researcher who took up the gauntlet of developing psychohistory. His name is Peter Turchin. Because there was an established academic field already named psychohistory [2], he named his field of study "Cliodynamics" [3].
When I first heard about Dr. Turchin, he had recently made a prediction that we were likely to see political violence in the 2020s [4, 5].
In this current blog entry he talks about factors that are likely to influence whether there is or is not political violence in the next few years.
Asimov introduced the concept of "psychohistory" in his Foundations series [1]. Psychohistory "combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people" [1]
Almost a decade ago I heard about a researcher who took up the gauntlet of developing psychohistory. His name is Peter Turchin. Because there was an established academic field already named psychohistory [2], he named his field of study "Cliodynamics" [3].
When I first heard about Dr. Turchin, he had recently made a prediction that we were likely to see political violence in the 2020s [4, 5].
In this current blog entry he talks about factors that are likely to influence whether there is or is not political violence in the next few years.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional) [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory [3]: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamics/ [4]: http://www.zdnet.com/article/cliodynamics-a-science-for-pred...! [5]: http://peterturchin.com/PDF/Turchin_JPR2012.pdf