US Government's new export controls are wreaking havoc on China's chip industry

  • While this might inflict short term pain to the chinese chip industry, it gives huge incentives to their indigenous chip industry to develop their own capabilities. It costs a lot of R&D to do so, and when western off-the-shelf chips are available, there's no profit motive to make such R&D (which has been CCP funded).

    So i think this may be a mistake in the very long run - the profits are denied to the western chip makers, and such profits are necessary for continued investment and innovation; and secondarily, sanctions like this will give a massive incentive for indigenous industry development. If successful, their competitiveness is going to be higher than that of the US & west's.

  • It is an extremely aggresive move on US part; in particular the part about criminalizing "US persons" that currently work in China.

    It is too early to tell how it will play out.

    Here is another perspective:

    https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/china-chip-ban-a-us-exercise-i...

    China chip ban a US exercise in extreme self-harm

    CapEx and R&D implode in hard-pressed Western semicon industry while China pours massive funds into chip independence

  • I feel mildly positive on this matter for the moment. I'm disappointed that this is coming from a protectionist angle and not as a principled response to Chinese moral failings, but you take what you can get I guess.

  • Is it really, though? It just seems like yet another attempt to push a truth that doesn't exist, the USA is a very small fraction of the world, despite what Americans think - China also has domestic skill, again despite the USA thinking they're better (probably less than 1% of chips are designed in the USA) - this chest beating is getting really old.

  • Does the USA still have chip fabrication capability locally, or in another partner country? If so, can they maintain capacity, or ramp up quickly enough?

  • Revoking US citizenship for Americans working abroad would be a godsend to them, not a threat. Extremely inaccurate translation. It's more like the sanctions are threatening them with DOJ prosecution.

  • There's a lot of finger pointing and political fallout from what is partly a situation caused by the end of Moore's law

  • Interesting fact followed by tweet upon tweet of really stupid predictions.