"The best way to predict the future is to invent it." - Alan Kay
Historically, I seem to have an accuracy of about 60% in determining when something new on the scene will be important or not. Better than chance, but not by much.
Just keep reading.
Effort and time spent are the secrets.
Good question - just some weeks ago I summarized my personal method/approach on tech research: https://www.alp54.com/posts/awesome-tech-research/ Further getting in touch/playing around with technologies (prototyping, etc...) might help to get here as well.