Bird Flu Risk Dashboard Using Prediction Markets (Current Risk "Low Chance")

by nathan_youngon 1/8/2025, 9:45:01 AM with 2 comments
  • by nathan_youngon 1/8/2025, 10:01:46 AM

    Happy to answer questions as to the sources used (Kalshi and Metaculus) and the conditional probabilities assigned: - P(bird flu as bad as covid | 10,000 US cases) = .5 - P(bird flu as bad as covid | CDC travel advisory) = .1

  • by llmfanon 1/8/2025, 11:32:41 AM

    Seems too narrow to be a website.

    Maybe a site where you get overviews like this... to a prompt.

    "Make me a dashboard on the current Moon race. And one on Taiwan invsaion. And one on AGI timelines."

    "Yes, send me an email if there's a major shift in any of them"