2024YR4 Collision Chance is now 1.9%

  • Wikipedia's source is: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20Y...

    It is currently moving away from us as it does its little dance around the sun. It will likely soon be too faint to see going forward until sometime in mid to late 2029, when we will likely see it again with NEO Surveyor, and likely the Vera Rubin LSST telescopes. It will spend most of that time with an apparent magnitude of probably fainter than 29. Once we spot it again in 2028/2029 time frame then there is a very high likely-hood that we will know its orbit well enough to know if it will miss or not (again, low, but not zero chance of impact).

    You can view the current best fit orbit here: https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024%...

    Source: I write asteroid orbit calculation code for my day job. What I say here is unrelated to my employers, and should not in any way be construed as any official statement.

  • Perhaps we need ai to figure out if itโ€™s actually going to hit