Nvidia Financial Results for Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025

  • Numbers:

    - option implied move of 10%, that's a big swing either way

    - Q4 EPS $0.89, Est $0.84

    - Q4 Gross Margins 73.5%, Est 73.5%

    - Q4 Rev $39.3B Est $38.5B

    - Q4 Data center rev $35.6B, Est $34.1B

    - Forecasts Q1 Rev of $43B, so expecting a new year bump

    - Automotive Rev $570M Est $500M

    - Networking Rev $3B, Est $3.6B, look for a a Q1 increase

    - R&D expenses $3.7B up 51% yoy, Est $3.75B

    - Q4 gaming revenue down on limited supply of ADA and Blackwell supply, which is fine as gaming rev is around $2.5B. Hard to believe that this was the entire company just 10 years ago

    To Watch:

    - Look at geography of sales of H series chips

    - what do they say about next refresh

    - used to be counted on to beat Est by 10-20%, now expected to meet Estimates

    - Can they ramp up Blackwell, turns out they can, nothing wrong with their pipeline so far( $11B delivered in Q4)

    Notes:

    - company now has $43B in cash, close to double what it had a year ago. Watch for a fat 1 time Div, MSFT, AAPL, etc all did it when their cash pile got to large

    - shares down YTD which could be profit taking for those hedge funds that deferred gains till the new year

    - Current data center GPU break down is 94% NVDA, 5.9% AMD and 0.1% Intel

    - Market so far is Meh about this, which is probably a win for the markets at the moment

    - other chip makers are flat as well in the after hours

    - other MAG7 companies are pretty flat as well.

    - IMHO the thing that the markets love the most is the forward guidance not the current quarters numbers

  • 4Q exceeds expectations.

    1Q revenue guidance exceeds expectations.

    1Q gross margin estimate less than expected, 71% (non-GAAP).

    Good growth but slowing down slightly.