Is runaway AI coming in years or decades?

  • Already here; already in use.

    If you had this, you wouldnt make it public. You would use it for as long as you can get away with it.

    I very much doubt any government is the one to achieve it. It's not a cold war type issue.

    OpenAI for example with stargate, 500 billion $ with softbank, oracle, and mgx. 10 datacenters all over the world.

    But for what? They already have datacenters processing their load. What exactly is this new capacity for? That's an awful lot of power and silicon for no perceivable need.

    It's for their AGI or whatever you want to call it.

  • Both.

    We’ll see some horror stories in the next few years about paperclip maximizers sent about their business without proper constraints —- but they won’t be general intelligence. Just current-generation agents someone thought would be capable of much more judgment than they are. And their scope of action may be damaging but will be limited.

    Runaway AGI requires that we _have_ AGI and I’d posit we’re still decades away from that.