> One of the AI 2027 authors joked to me in the comments on a recent article that “you may not like it but it's what peak AI forecasting performance looks like”. Well, I don’t like it, and if this truly is “peak forecasting”, then perhaps forecasting should not be taken very seriously. Maybe this is because I am a physicist, not a Rationalist. In my world, you generally want models to have strong conceptual justifications or empirical validation with existing data before you go making decisions based off their predictions: this fails at both.
This is really, really great. I hope it gets as many eyeballs on it as AI 2027 did.
> One of the AI 2027 authors joked to me in the comments on a recent article that “you may not like it but it's what peak AI forecasting performance looks like”. Well, I don’t like it, and if this truly is “peak forecasting”, then perhaps forecasting should not be taken very seriously. Maybe this is because I am a physicist, not a Rationalist. In my world, you generally want models to have strong conceptual justifications or empirical validation with existing data before you go making decisions based off their predictions: this fails at both.
This is really, really great. I hope it gets as many eyeballs on it as AI 2027 did.
The same post on the author's Substack is here: https://titotal.substack.com/p/a-deep-critique-of-ai-2027s-b...