Almost immediately Clifford Stoll's TED preso jumped into my mind. "If you want to know about the future, don't ask me... I'm old...ask a kindergarten teacher." (paraphrased)
Mike Arrington: The future is CrunchPad.
Scobleizer: No, the future is Building43!
Guy Kawasaki: You both are now on Truemors, which is the future.
Me: 42!
So we are supposed to take Scoble seriously because he has a lot of Twitter followers? His track record with companies indicates he doesn't really predict the future too well.
At Microsoft he made a name for himself by blogging when no one else was doing it. That was a good move and is what propelled him into the public eye.
Since then, he hasn't really accomplished much. He went to work for an unsuccessful podcast company, was booted from Fast Company, and now wants to tell us what the future of the web is?
I think taking what "experts" predict seriously is almost always a mistake. Look at the stock market - experts were running the companies that are collapsing and experts told people to invest in Bernie Madoff's fund. Oops.
a bit of a silly argument imho. it's like saying back in the mid 90's that 'searching the web' would win over the web itself.
Wow, the web's two most obnoxious swollen egos disagree on something. Stop the presses.